COMMENTARY ON PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS Campaign Strategies 2001 to Date and “CHANGE” as a Campaign strategy.
(Special attention will be paid to President Yoweri Museveni and Dr.Kizza Besigye)
WHERE DID THE OPPOSITION TO MUSEVENI GO WRONG?
March 12, 2001 People of Uganda went to poll for a Presidential candidate of their choice.
Six Candidates contested for the presidential elections namely (Mr.) Kizza Besigye, Yoweri Museveni, Aggrey Awori, Mayanja Kibirige, Francis Bwengye and Chappa Karuhanga.
Retired Conel Kizza Besigye, was the strongest opponent to incumbent President Yoweri Museveni in 2001, actually the urban elite described the election as to close to call but alas Museveni won the day with such a big margin contrary to analysis made by the urban elite. Therefore some questions remain unanswered; who are the better analysts of the political situation in Uganda? Are they the elite or the populace? Is the Movement system Democratic? What do the people of Uganda want from Politicians? And what are the strong holds of the incumbent leader over his rival opponents? And Finally is CHANGE a workable political strategy.
Whether the Movement systems is democratic?, is an interesting questions the international community has been asking for a long time and only the people of Uganda can answer this question. I think the just concluded elections have answered most of these questions including that of whether the movement is Democratic or not.
It should be noted that for the second time President Museveni has won elections with quite a big margin. In 1996 President Museveni won the election with 76% of the total votes cast leaving peanuts for other candidates to share amongst themselves, Ssemogerere from Democratic Party being in the biggest contender.
In 2001, with quite an organized opposition conglomerate of multi parties, urban disgruntled and representative Nasser Ssebagala and the soon to be declared splinter group of the movement system, led by Iron lady Winnie Byanyima put up quite a challenge, to the movement political system, lowering its scores to 69% of the total votes cast. This was still good enough for the incumbent to show the whole world his popularity amongst Ugandans.
The real celebration for the movement political system is not President Museveni winning the polls but the strength of the Movement type of democracy that has taken route in our country.
Retired Colonel Kizza Besigye has served the bigger purpose of manifesting the democratic practices of the movement system rather than him being an opposition. Him, contesting on individual merit, is a clear manifestation that the election under the Movement system was in line with the constitution, which was promulgated in 1995. Secondly these elections have showed that the population of Uganda has the capacity to elect a politician of their choice based on manifestos and most importantly what one stands for.
Besigye was expected to win the polls because the movement has massive support in our country, but the electorate has politically matured in that, it is no longer about the movement, multipartyism or even ethnicity like it has always been in African cases. The electorate has shown that ones' manifesto, confidence for security in a leader and the political ideals one stands for, plays a very big role in winning the election.
As a democracy, the people of Uganda polled for a candidate of their choice without state intimidation, as claimed by the opposition, and yet, International observers refuted these allegations against the government thus declaring election free and fair. Counting of votes was done in the open, with participation of political representative, police was in charge of arresting malpractices, and not the army as the opposition had propagated during their campaign.
The Electoral commission was impartial, though they have showed a few structural weaknesses like, late deliveries of the polling material and a poor electoral register, which must be addressed. Finally the army, together with police and other security organs were in charge of state security, as it has always been the back born of Uganda's democracy.
One of the opposition's strong arguments was that; Museveni has ruled for a longer time than was expected, therefore, it was time for him to go. This idea won the opposition quite a lot of support from the urban elite, especially those who analyzed our political situation depending on political elitists philosophy, and some of those comparing Ugandan politics to the first and second world countries.
Not to my surprise, this strategy did not sale in rural areas because it represented a new form of guerilla war against President Museveni their son. He has proven more than worth a son to the rural people by providing them with universal primary education (UPE), Health centers, Modern roads, Electricity, Immunization and most of all peace defended by a disciplined army, Uganda People's Defense Force (UPDF).
The idea of "Change" as a campaign strategy should be clearly understood in its self. What is Change? According to the concise oxford dictionary Change means. Change1:- Making or becoming different; Substitution of one for another, arrival at fresh phrase etc. Change 2: Take or use another instead of; become different; become new etc. I will also pick some bits and pieces from Management and organisation theory scholars; Lewin's three stage model that was later adapted by Edgar Schein (1964) comprises of the following steps: 1. Unfreezing existing behavior (ie gaining acceptance for change) 2. Changing Behavior (adopting new attitudes) which requires a prolific Change agent. 3. Refreezing new behavior (Reinforce new patterns of thinking). Also refer to Phillp Kotner change theory and its stages.
Based on these definitions the opposition did not clearly define the two distinctive features of the two political alternatives ie the Movement system headed by President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni and Opposition groups headed by Dr. Kizza Besigye. The features that were supposed to be changed from what they were to some thing a new were also not clear to the electorate. For resistance, change in what type of democratic type of governance to what? clearly campaigning to show the different features.
Changes in economic initiatives such as investment, taxation, budget allocation, poverty eradication strategies, microeconomic activities from what? To .......???. Change in civil society mobilization, health, education, media and governance organisation from Legislature, Judiciary and executive from what type? To what?.
Change in Military institutionalism from what type ? to ....??.These processes would clearly define the aspect of change and distinctively be understood by the populace. Therefore "Change as a campaign strategy was not really conceptualized and clearly disseminated to the electorate.
However in all the campaigns, I have had the opposition stick to showing improprieties without juxtaposing the improprieties with the alternative for the electorate to understand. Comparative academics such as Sartori have argued that standard and precise definitions of various concepts in politics is problematic, calling it conceptual stretching. Could this have been the problem faced by the opposition in fielding "Change as a campaign strategy? What about the qualities of the change agent?. Can we argue that Dr. Kizza Besigye as the main agent of change lacked the qualities that the electorate were looking for in a Leader?. We shall explore this point.
On the whole this strategy of change backfired at the opposition, because they made Museveni seem like an enemy, which sparked off sentiments from the Museveni supporters, making them adamant to listening to any issues of importance from the opposition. It was more like an anti - opposition immunization dosage the opposition was providing on behalf of President Museveni.
Political philosopher Machiavelli wrote in his book the "The Prince" Men always want change for the sake of it and when it comes, they complain and wish they hadn't changed".
History has shown that the elite is always in need of change from the status quo. Contemporary scholars argue that some of the biggest revolutions like the French revolutions in Europe were all sowed by the elite who rarely participated in the struggle to achieve what they had sowed. Therefore can we say that the urban elite community were the wrong reinforcing agents of change, as such Dr. Kizza Besigye backed on the wrong tree.
It is against this background that Bismark came up with his famous statement, “The Great questions of the day shall not be answered by speeches and resolutions but by Blood and Iron" Bismark realized that the elite waste time in endless dogmatic debates.
Unfortunately the elite have been retired Col. Kizza Besigye's strong hold let alone the fact that they are the minority in our country, around 10% actually vote of whom other candidates have a share of the vote. The opposition further made a mistake by trying to explain the complicated theories of what pure democracy should be in comparison to the movement system in the short period of campaigns. Some of these issues were mind boggling.
The opposition failed to identify and package the issues. As such playing right in the hands of President Museveni because he was able to counter defend and substantiate whatever issue the opposition raised against the government by using simple examples to explain his points and achievements. For example he usually spoke of, the increase in the number of cemented houses as a sign of economic growth, he broke down figures into large numbers such as, we shall give Ug Shs.. 4,000 million instead of 2.5 billion shillings etc. for health etc...or sometimes would joke that this money given to one of you can be used to build a three storied house with hard notes. The calculated use of these figures strategically worked on the minds of the electorate. A strategy that was ignored by opposition in especially building their cases on corruption.
On Women's day 2001 The president sighted the use charcoal stoves as one of the achievement of women under the movement political system, in his manifesto he talked about sanitary pads and many other simple essentials things easy for an ordinary person to understand and identify with. While the opposition spoke of building car industries and many Utopian promises not applicable to our country at the time.
The opposition also focused on becoming the mouth piece for the urban unemployed, disgruntled and uneducated a campaign strategy launched by former Mayor Nasser Ssebagala. It was virtually clear this group backed Dr. Kizza Besigye, they even created a song’ Hajji a tugambye tuwee Besigye obululu" meaning Haji Nasser Ssebagala has asked us to vote for Kizza Besigye'. This song was very popular among the urban areas. Opposition Urban supporters spread like a wild fire blurring the vision of the opposition. After being deceived by this chantery group, Dr. Besigye and his group became complacent that the victory was theirs. But where did they go wrong with this group?
First and foremost the elite group that raised thumbs up high on Dr. Besigye’s decision to contest for presidency strongly criticized his move of allying with former convict Nasser Ntegge Ssebaggala. To some elite it was luck of clear political principles and vision to identify with a former United states of America convict, actually, If I may put it rightly, the urban elite described this group as Bayaye (touts). Therefore Dr.Besigye lost support on grounds of credibility.
The Museveni National Task force did not ignore this opportunity, so they filled the media with propaganda against the chaotic alliance.
Comments made by members of parliament for Rubaga South Ken Lukyamuzi and Haji Nasser Ssebaggala, inciting people to cut foreigners with machetes, confirmed the anarchy in stock from the opposition., the two stood as evidence for chaos from the opposition's side, which was well exploited by President Museveni’s campaign team in the Mass Media.
Meanwhile the opposition tried to maximize propaganda against the army as instigators of violence. President Museveni countered the hullabaloo about the army and instead deployed the army with other security agencies to maintain law and order, which they did quite well. As such President Museveni proved his control over the state security organs castigating the issue of the army being divided.
Regarding the issue of graduated tax, the opposition did more of educating the public about the principles of taxation such as " The expenses incurred in tax collection should be minimal to enable tax collectors accrue revenue' than actually showing how they are going to change it. Like I said earlier on, such complicated technicalities did not move the ordinary people let alone be understood by them, a task that was supposed to be clarified by the opposition in a lengthy campaign strategy.
The President knowing the people he is dealing with, responded by simply promising not to charge over three (Shs. 3000) for the economically handicapped, abolished women taxation and taxation on all people above sixty years of age and this was enough to counter Dr. Kizza Besigye's issues on taxation.
On the whole the opposition had poor campaigns strategies, which were susceptible to manipulation by the President's campaigns team. Even some of the good issues they had were not clearly articulated to fit the ordinary person's level of understanding.
The degree of complacence within Dr. Kizza Besigye's task force also betrayed them. They were deceived by massive turn ups of people on rallies not considering the fact that people in rural areas and small towns are usually idle and redundant due to low economic activities. The rural communities usually used rallies as "time killers", as such could not be used as a direct representations of support one had.
Museveni National task force knew this fact, therefore in each area the president made a rally, a group of people known as Kakuyege (door to door campaigners) were left in these areas to intensively campaign during the nights and day. Their duty was to reinforce the Presidents campaign messages and prevent it from being distorted by opposition groups.
Therefore, in future all those planning to contest for political offices, should watch out for the use of "CHANGE" as a basis for contesting. We have learnt that incumbents can easily manipulate issues raised within this spectrum to serve their purpose.
CHANGE, is a phenomenon brought about by time in any particular aspect. In our case, Ugandans needed some more time to develop a basic level of intellectual and political awareness of state matters to enable them make conscience and rational political judgments upon issues raised by politicians. It is not until this time that elite arguments on issues like corruption, democracy, multipartism that will hold enough water to gain an ordinary person's support. Therefore, the idea of one person bringing about change, without considering the political conscience of the people is ludicrous and an irrational assessment of ones capability.
PART TWO
Brief Assessments of political developments since 2001 to Date. (18th January - February 7, 2012)
President Museveni has gone ahead and won election consistently in 2005 and 2010. I will not have any other political judgments but maintain the above mentioned factors were repeated in the campaign strategies.
The Opposition however had a strong point of corruption in the army and other political sectors in 2005, however were countered by the Presidents ability to introduce education for all incentives and further opened the political space to multiparytism a phenomenon that cultivated political cohesion within the movement system.
2011, was a smooth sail for the Movement system due to the same technical issues however, the case of corruption was strategically countered in President's Museveni's term, the president strategically ensured that corruption cases both small and big covered the media from 2005 to 2010. Some officials were arrested, and a new phenomenon sprung up; endless parliamentary public accounts committees and continuous probing of government officials in the media, some of the cases were strategic movement maneuvers. These efforts were enough to maintain conversation in media and public debate. At least every eligible ordinary, non political elite voter had the opportunity to hear one thing or two, about a public political official that has been implicated in a corruptions scandal or sent to prison. These efforts were enough to rest the electorates’ doubts about the governments' effort in tackling corruption. Corruption is, however on the increase and yet remains the opposition’s strongest "punch" against the incumbent government. A punch they have not yet mastered and developed the tact to deliver.
The case of policing has further grown since 2005 to date; to a point that community oriented policing strategies have been adopted and strong public relations campaigns. The media today refers to Police heads as "Boss". Maybe it is a new title from policing training centers.
The incumbency has further distanced its self from liability to political improprieties and placed the burden on the police. Strategically the opposition has further been out maneuvered by constantly finding itself engaged with police and other security organs. In a way, political activitists are finding a growing gap between them and Movement representatives and especially with the Executive due to the constant interaction with security agencies. A strategy that is being employed by the government.
The incumbency raises its iron and soft hand to the police and warring party depending on the situation. It has therefore remained a catch twenty two for security agencies found in these situations; further strengthen the incumbency's strength over political descent.
In 2011, security organs further streaped most of the presidential candidates of their presidential and diplomatic dignity by practically beating them, dragging them on the ground, throwing them onto the back of police trucks like thieves or touts, some of these scenes are unheard of, in the field of political diplomacy. These scenes were degrading in themselves but further undermined the candidates before the populace. Graphically put, a political candidate who polled over 2 million votes, in that particular incident of being dragged and trumped upon was streaped of his dignity. It practically meant that over 2 million Ugandans that voted for this candidate were also being trumped upon.
Technically the opposition has equally been out maneuver in the use of the forth estate, the Media. The media has constantly been active at reporting improprieties in governance and corruption but this has been stream lined to a particular area of concern, while the Movement has been tactical in raising issues and shining light on improprieties or cases that are a problem now but has planned for, or is in the process of solving, military scientist call this tact psychological operation or "Psycho Ops" (Black and White Ops). The opposition parties have time and again fallen in the same trap of also raising and participating in these discussions, at their own peril. The media heats up these same issues, and finally the incumbency responds to its electorate by resolving the issue at hand and the opposition is once again left playing in the hands of the opposition. Some political analysts have characterized this as "hood winking" the public.
Political Mergers
It is important to note, the drama that ensues amalgamation of political parties, I will avoid the details of this strategy but, I will question the timing of opposition groups political mergers. The mergers in all the political campaigns have come during the time of Political office races. According to my assessment the political disagreements of the mergers has always covered about 50% of the media discussion at the time when the opposition parties should be focusing on their main rival President Yoweri Museveni. The parties have always gone on with one candidate refusing to contest unless given leadership; some popular candidates decide to stand as independents etc... This process usually fills the media and attracts more political discussion than the issues that are finally raised in their Presidential race manifestos. I do therefore find many loopholes that are exploitated by the incumbency in this political strategy. In my opinion these mergers should come earlier before the Presidential campaigns, unless otherwise intended to maintain the status quo.
Military
The Incumbency has further attained political milleage from the Military achievements over the years. The high level of discipline that the army has maintained and distance from politics, The President himself also retired from the army giving him credibility as a civilian leader. The military further pursued the Lords Resistance Army (LRA) that was under the leadership of Kony and restored peace in Northern Uganda, hence giving the incumbency political strength, a one time daunting area for the movement system. Cattle rustling in the Teso and Karamojong region were equally fought by the military and other successful international military ventures in Somalia. These developments have legitimized and increased the professional standard of the military. Therefore before the electorate, the incumbency has got it right with the military. However the opposition is challenged to show the need for change of leadership with such glaring military successes.
Electoral commission
The Electoral Commission has technically developed; it has over the years improved the electoral processes in terms of facilities, professionalism, technology and increased its independence. As such, the one time political mileage for the opposition has over the years narrowed in this sector.
Poverty.
Ravaging poverty and income inequalities by far remains one of the strongest political arguments against the Movement system. I still find the lingual, characterization and packaging of this problem by the opposition still weak, same goes for the messaging of the campaign material used in articulating these issues. Poverty continues to bite on Ugandans and that is a fact.
Use of the Media
Any communication specialist who watched Dr. Kizza Besigye's Television visual campaigns and those of President Yoweri Museveni will tell the difference in quality, positioning, calmness of crowds, airtime and most importantly the exact visibility time of the candidates in their Television campaign trails.
I will highlight some of the media flaws in Dr. Kizza Besigye's use of media, while for instance he went on campaigns trails along with musicians and comedians to converse votes, which was not a bad strategy. Technically this strategy was not well managed, he was usually blurred and always with at least two, three or more people on the campaign platform at any one time, when he was delivering his message. The music artists are very popular in these communities, therefore competed with him for attention hence loosing votes in most of the communities in which he traveled due to public relation errs. The opposition campaign should have found a clear communication strategy around this point.
In this regard therefore, his Image was not strong and outstanding in the minds of the electorate, as such when it came to casting votes some times the people did not clearly know whom to vote for on the ballot paper.
Comparing to President Museveni, he always stood clearly visually visible and eminent on a podium alone. He always stood out of the crowd and never shared his podium with a number of people, as such was clearly visible and appealing to the electorate. It is not a mistake that totalitarian systems have their leaders curved in stone and metals and stand tall in almost all corners of their countries, this strengthens their presence. This strategy gave President Museveni an edge in the media along with other factors. I can not ignore the role of the "Hut" which was a symbol that created a strong identity for the president.
President Museveni has developed the skin for adapting with time; the 2010 booming music industry did not leave him behind. While Ugandans had enough of his Ranches and Milk discussions. He introduced himself as an artist, which I must say, he has always been especially in regard to his art of public speaking. He launched his own Urban music Song, a traditional folk tale packaged to the taste of today’s music sound beat. Once again out maneuvering the oppositions' use of Music artist along the campaign trail. On the whole, his use of the media was a masterpiece that the opposition took for granted.
Passive campaign messages used by Dr. Kizza Besigye. He stood at a podium in the Busoga region and Shouted out... (Muwunya Obwaavu, mujjudde envuzza, muli baavu), .....etc meaning (You are stinking poverty, you are full of jiggers, you are poor...) and then went on to deliver his political message... Such messages in the long run were associatated with him and were easily washed away by President Museveni's promises of "honey" ; In the next budget we shall construct Your main road, We shall build more health centers, We shall provide free secondary Education etc. In a way the opposition and the Movement were playing a sort of "Good Corp, Bad corp" with the electorate. Besigye on his campaign trail would paint a bleak picture and President Museveni would come and paint an opposite optimistic picture. Logically, Who would be more appealing? and what message would stick most? That is a question for you to answer. Would you vote a person who has just told you about your woes and troubles OR Vote for a candidate that has promised to create a better future for you? Unless the strategy was designed to maintain the status quo.
If I were to graphically demonstrate this scenario for a young man or woman who has only witnessed one type of political system, The concept of "changing" a type of governance would be like changing a girl into a boy or vice versa, such was the task for the opposition to prove to the electorate.
President Museveni gained points, by continuously highlighting successes in the strength of the economy, Increased education, health facilities, increased modern road networks, Small and medium enterprises initiatives such as SACCO (Government funded financial clusters groups), North Uganda Social action fund (NUSAF) increased numbers of modern housing facilities and opened markets with our neighbors through a number regional co operations, Increased use of telecommunication facilities such as MTN, WARID, AIRTEL, ORANGE etc... Radio and Television stations and a number of print media and Internet facilities.
Finally in 2010 the Incumbency delivered a blow of more "honey" to the populace that the opposition continues to struggle with;- The new promise of "Oil", that was discovered in the albertain region. Movement party political strategists campaigned in the media and small town discussion and explored all possible ways through which the ordinary person will benefit from this newly found black Gold. The promise of a new wealth ahead was enough to send the electorate into hibernation or "sleep" and rest all the desires for change, as such countering almost all arguments of poverty raised by the opposition.
Finally has CHANGE worked, it has worked worldwide and will continue to work, in the latest years we have seen what has been dubbed the "Arab Spring" changes in leadership through revolutions, in Arab countries such as Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, Bahrain and Yemen, etc.. Political leaders have been changed and policies required to meet the needs of people in today's time have been changed in countries such Saudi Arabia, Syria. The factors that have led to these changes are beyond the scope of this paper however change has taken place and methods have equally varied depending on the countries.
American President, Barack Obama Democratic party representative was ushered into Presidency on the ticket of change. Equally the same social, economic and political elitism of Americans is incomparable to Uganda; however these are historical political presidencies/grounds for CHANGE as a political campaign platform. Political change agents should study these cases for them to put up a credible political fight.
This paper sums up my analysis and update. This paper was written as an academic paper in 2001 for the department of Mass communication.
PART THREE
Update (February 7)
In the Event of writing this paper President Museveni delivered a report to the parliament of Uganda in a special secession about the state of Oil exploration.
In a spirited statement he said: I now feel that the Movement has the right ammunition to take over Kampala, sending a huge applause from Parliamentarians. "This is how I feel now"
The Movement has regained the initiative due to having the development pillars in place. We have an educated society, We have energy, We have the right security apparatus and now Oil , he said. This parliamentary secession was televised on Uganda Broadcasting Channel. (UBC).
2011 Pole Result Declared
President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni has been declared winner of the just concluded Presidential elections that took place Friday 18th February 2011. The electoral commission chairman engineer Badru Kiggundu made the announcement on Sunday 20th February 2011. The poll results are as follows;-
1. President Yoweri Museveni (NRM) won by 68.38%. getting 5,428,369 votes out of 8,272,760 total votes.
2. Dr. Kizza Besigye (IPC) second in with 26% getting 2, 064, 963 votes.
3. Mr. Norbert Maot Democratic Party’s Norbert Mao is in third position having polled 147, 708 votes.
4. Mr. Olara Otunnu (Uganda People's Congress (UPC)
5.Ms. Betty Olive Kamya ( Uganda Federal alliance)
6.Mr. Abed Bwankia People’s Development Party
7.Mr. Jaberi Bidandi Ssali People’s Progressive Party
8.Mr. Samuel Walter Lubega Independent candidate.
Written and Edited By:
Byaruhanga Edgar Walter
Communication/Public Relations Expert
Executive Director
Development Initiatives Africa
United Nations Civil Military Coordinator, from a humanitarian perspective
Commodities, Forex and stock trader.
+256 (0) 75 1836972
+256 (0) 78 7459373
edgarbyaruhanga@yahoo.com
edgarbyaruhanga@gmail.com
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