AGRICULTURE AND THE ECONOMICS OF RAINFALL

By Genevieve Apio

gennygenevieve256@gmail.com

Pursuing a Bachelor of Arts in journalism and Communication

A Udhu billahi minash-shaytanir-rajim ( I seek  God's protection from Satan, the accursed)

              AGRICULTURE AND THE ECONOMICS OF RAINFALL

Agriculture is a backbone to any country’s economy. Defined as the science of growing crops and rearing of animals for food and income. It can also be referred to as the segment of an economy, which involves cultivation of plants, rearing of livestock and fishing (farming) for economic and domestic consumption. The sector is arguably the most important aspect of any economy as it is vital for human survival.

Agriculture makes its contribution to economic development in the following ways;

By providing food and raw materials to non-agricultural sectors of the economy, by creating demand for goods produced in non-agricultural sectors, by providing investable surplus in the form of savings and taxes to be invested, earning valuable foreign exchange, and providing employment opportunities to their populations.

 Food drives the world apart from clean water, access to adequate food is the primary concern for most people. This makes agriculture one of the largest and most significant industries in the world. Agriculture is important not only for a country’s balance of trade but the security and health of its population as well.

Other factors constant (Ceteris pariburis) this paper shall focus on the contribution of Rainfall to the economic development of a country. 

Rainfall plays a huge role in Agriculture and other sectors of the economy. Farmers obtain drinking water for their livestock from streams and underground wells. 

Areas that receive heavy rainfall can harvest it and use it for farming, construction, housing, home consumption, also used in industries for cooling machines. Other countries harvest water for irrigation purposes.

 Science is still baffled with the origin of water, however as it is understood today, the claim is water is alien to earth and probably came from another terrestrial body to earth. Another important fact is the amount of water in the universe does not really change in measurement but it only recirculates through living things and re-used again and again.

Based on this scientific fact it will becomes easy for me to develop an economic theory based on rain as contributor to economic development, we shall make one assumption for the purposes of perspective.

“Let us assume I was a banker to the world, and my currency is water. I loan, pay and tax by giving or not giving water to various states in form of rainfall. Let us also assume for each amount of rainfall received other factors constant it will translate into a definite and tangible increase in agricultural production hence an increase in the country’s Gross National product.  Having established this hypothesis, I will make a random selection of countries to base on my qualitative and quantitative analysis.  This will help us draw some basic scientific conclusion on the contribution of rainfall to a country’s economic development”. 

Comparative advantage

Countries all over the world carry out Agriculture differently. What one country grows and produces is different from others or even the same. However, not all countries capitalize on Agriculture due to various factors such as lack of extensive land for farming, instabilities, poor mechanization skills, unskilled labor force, pests and diseases among others. 

Cloud cover manipulation 

In order to have a clear argument I will briefly discuss cloud cover manipulation in order to make rain. Cloud seeding is the process by which chemicals are sprayed by either airplanes or pumped by generators to the clouds to increase and hasten precipitation. Chemicals such as silver iodide or dry ice are dumped onto the cloud so as to make rainfall. Chemitrails and vapor tracers are also currently being used by NASA and probably other governments to study and trace cloud movement, according to an article from NASA, they claim to spray lithium into the clouds to study the movement of clouds, usually once the chemicals are in the air they turn the clouds reddish brown. There has been no evidence of adverse effects of lithium spraying on the health of people. However, one has to wonder what effect they might be having on the environment as a whole.  Defrosting chemicals have also been used to prevent snow forming clouds especially in areas with high air traffic such as airports.  In some areas such as the wheat growing regions of the parries chemicals have been used to induce rain to support large scale wheat growing.  

Military Weapons and rainfall(Associated Emergency Disasters)

There is talk of military weapons currently being tested by super powers to manipulate cloud cover to cause floods, lightning strikes, earth quakes, volcanic eruptions, and potentially manipulate tectonic plates to cause massive tsunamis and floods from the sea. Such tests include the USA High frequency active auroral research program (HAARP), the chines Giant Ionosphere zapping radar weapon a scatter radar designed to bounce radio waves off the earth’s ionosphere ,  these weapons potentially cause earth quakes, lightning strikes etc. In spite of these conspiracy theories running in the media, no government has come out to officially claim ownership of such weapons. Once again we are left to wonder whether or not some weather patterns that result into massive floods, cyclones, hurricanes, tornadoes are as a result of natural occurrences or weather manipulation, an unfortunate disaster to weak and indefensible states but more so, to mother earth’s biodiversity due to the energy that is lost and wasted due to disasters before it has realized it’s full productivity or made a contribution to other organisms. We can console ourselves as some have already gone ahead to develop Al logarithms for each natural disaster such as flooding,hurricane ,cyclone etc that occurs. The logic is that for every living organism and man that dies an investment into fossil fuels for the future is created. This dead matter shall be acted upon by pressure and heat to produce fossil fuels but that still doesn’t account for the non-recoverable units of energy wasted of living organisms that die before realizing its productivity and potency. Besides that, fossil fuels take tens of thousands of years to be formed. To further counter that argument is the fact that natural population growth/ death and natural disasters as they may be are enough to create the necessary waste required to produce fossil fuels because eventually naturally all that is matter shall decompose in accordance with the laws of nature. As predicted by economist Malthus. Adopting Malthus’s preventative and positive checks economic theories as a basis for extreme military operations to curb population expulsion is inhuman, ungodly, misleading/flawed economics and is tantamount to international criminal acts (offences) to the larger part, and an offence on indipendent state sovereignity that can potentially be characterised as an act of war against à sovereign state.

Rainfall patterns have also been adversely affected by Industrialization due to carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gas emissions a phenomenon known as carbon foot printing. Carbon dioxide and other gases released from automobiles and aero planes have been found to adversely affect the climate hence changing rainfall patterns. Having understood these facts about carbon foot printing and the existing weather manipulation methods. This paper will help us establish if indeed rainfall plays a direct role in the gross agricultural output of a country. 

 Gross agricultural Out put of selected countries

Kenya. Its economy depends greatly on agriculture. The sector contributes 26% GDP for the country and generates 60 percent of foreign exchange earnings. The country receives annual rainfall of (200- 600mm) and annual temperatures range from (23- 34) degrees. Semi- arid areas are higher (900 to 1800mm) experience an annual average rainfall of (500 to1000mm) and are slightly cooler.

Commercial farming is carried out, which refers to the production of crops and rearing of animals for both local consumption and export. Commercial farming in Kenya is carried out in the highlands, the rift valley and parts of Nyanza. Western, eastern and coast provinces that receive abundant rainfall compared to other parts of Kenya. Among the commercial crops are coffee, tea, wheat, rice,   tobacco, pyrethrum, sisal, cashewnuts, wattle, cotton and sugar cane. Commercial farmers also rear beef, dairy cattle, sheep, poultry, pigs and ostriches. Kenya is the leading producer of tea and coffee as well as the third leading exporter of fresh produce such as cabbage, onions and mangoes. Over 180,000 hectares of land are given to horticultural crops, providing 100,000 full time jobs and 4000,000 tons of produce. Horticultural crops grown in Kenya include cut flowers, fruit, French beans and it is mainly practiced in highlands, rift valley and parts of the eastern province that are rich with fertile soils and receive heavy rain fall.

Liberia. Agriculture is worth 38.8% of Liberia’s GDP. It has vast forests and abundant water receiving (4624mm) of rainfall per year and (385.3mm) per month. Liberia is endowed with favorable conditions for agriculture with most of the country having well-drained rain forest soils ideal for tree crop cultivation. The leading cash crop in Liberia is rubber with the country producing over 35,000 tons each year. Another important crop in Liberia is palm oil with an annual production of 42,000 tons, rice, cassava and bananas.

Somalia. The climate in Somalia is warm and temperate. Its located in an arid region the average annual temperature in Somalia is (18c) the average annual rainfall is (285mm), agricultural sector contributes 65% of the country’s GDP.  Principal exports include fish, charcoal and maize. Sugar, sorghum and corn are products for the domestic market.  The most common activity is pastoral farming. Farmers also practice commercial farming through the use of indigenous farming methods which involve cultivation and minimal irrigation along the jubbah and Shebelle Rivers. About 110,000   tons of bananas are produced. Another important cash crop in the region is sugar cane.

Israel. Agriculture in Israel is a highly developed industry. Rain fall is unevenly distributed, the south of the country averages 100mm annually and the north averages 435mm. Rainfall varies from season to season and from year to year. The most part of Israel is desert and only 20% of the land area is naturally arable. Israel however is a major exporter of fresh produce and world leader in agricultural technologies. Field crops grown in the country include wheat, sorghum, and corn. Fruits and vegetables grown include citrus, avocados, kiwifruit, guavas, mangoes, and grapes from orchards located on the Mediterranean coastal plain. Tomatoes, cucumbers peppers are grown throughout the country, melons are grown during winter months in the valleys, subtropical areas in the country produce bananas and dates while in the northern hills. Grape vineyards are found across the country, as the country’s wine industry is a world player. Also dairy farming is carried out on a large scale.  Israel is the world’s leading fresh citrus fruit producer and its exports include oranges, grapefruit and tangerines among other fruits. It also produces vast quantities of flowers for export commonly are the wax flower, roses, tulips, lilies and it exports desert varieties.

 Uganda: Agriculture is Uganda’s leading sector contributing over 44%of the country’s gross domestic product. The climate is pleasantly warm with temperatures between 20-25c and annual rainfall ranging between 900 and 1180mm. agriculture in Uganda involves growing of crops and rearing of animals on small and large scale. Uganda is second only to Kenya as Africa’s largest producer of tea. Both food and cash crops are grown in different regions of the country. Uganda’s favorable climate and relatively fertile soils allow production of a variety of cash and food crops. In the drier areas of the country agricultural activity is centered on cattle rearing and other livestock. Common foods include plantain millet, cassava, and sorghum. Cash crops such as tobacco, tea and vanilla has been developed. Uganda is the largest producer of banana and sweet potato in Africa.

U.S.A.  Receives annual rainfall of 715mm. The United States produces about half of the world’s corn and 10 percent of its wheat, and a leading producer of soy beans.

China. Climate is extremely diverse ranging from tropical and alpine in nature. China is ranked  number one in gross agricultural output, producing rice, wheat, potatoes, tomatoes, sorghum, peanuts, tea, millet, barley, oil  and  pork production. Livestock like sheep, goats and camels raised by local herders is the leading worldwide producer of rice, but it is also the leading producer of wheat and the number two producer of corn as well as the largest producer of many vegetables including onions and cabbage.

                   Qualitative analysis of Randomly selected countries.

	2008	2010	2011	2013	2014	2016
Country	Average precipitation	Gross Agric output	Average precipitation	Gross Agric output	Average precipitation	Gross Agric output
China	645.00	894,076.8	645.00	1,297,413.20	645.00	1,229,905.40
Brazil	1782	167,389.70	1,782.00	223,487.50	1,761.00	165,848.00
Indonesia	2702	99,257.30	2,702.00	139,349.00	2,702.00	137,478
Russia	460.00	69,679.70	460.00	99,049.30	460.00	70,644.70
France	867	71,394.20	867.00	80,282.40	867.00	66,138.50
Iran	228.00	40,216.30	228.00	62.302.00	228.00	48,292.60
Vietnam	1821	31,371.40	228.00	40,648.60	1,821.00	43,311.60
Egypt	51	28,480.40	51.00	31,326.50	51.00	28,209.50
Ethiopia	848	11,193.90	848.00	15,860.60	848.00	17,614.50
Kenya	630	9,715.60	630.00	11631.4	630	12,328.00
Jamaica	2051	1,722.10	2,051.00	2,225.00	2,051.00	1,796.20
Israel	453	6,425.60	435.00	7,308.00	435.00	6,819.20
Mozambique	1032	1,956.10	1,032.00	4,663.90	1,032.00	5,017.60
Brunei	2722	110.9	2722	167.7	2722	157.8
Qatar	74	93.9	74	126.8	74	133.4
Barbados	1422	125.5	1422	146.1	1422	143.3
Singapore	2497	53.7	2497	76.9	2497	65

On average the gross agricultural output as evidenced by these figures has been consistently growing for most of the countries over the years. This can be attributed to a number of factors as shall be discussed below.

 Based on the table above some countries such as Jamaica,Peurto rico Mozambique, Bhutan, Equatorial Guinea, Brunei, Indonesia and a host of other countries not mentioned in this random selection have continued to underperform in terms of gross agricultural output in spite of the high rainfall they receive. While countries such as Israel, Egypt, Iran, Kenya, Ethiopia, Russia and China have registered high gross agricultural output despite of receiving low rainfall. Countries such as Antigua, Singapore, Qatar, UAE, and Barbados that do receive very low rainfall in comparison to other nations continue to register low gross agricultural out. These examples go to show the importance of rainfall in actually determining the economic status of a country thus other factors constant it would be fair to say  that a country that receives high rainfall throughout the years should equally reflect high gross agricultural out. Unfortunately this is not the case as evidenced by the examples above.  This anomaly is enough to disqualify my hypothesis of using rainfall as an international currency because in reality rainfall alone does not necessarily contribute to the gross agricultural output of a country.  However rainfall being a resource, it is imperative that countries that are well positioned in that regard should use it effectively and take comparative advantage over other countries that do not receive the same amount.  

 Why some countries are successful than others in Agriculture with the little rainfall they receive.

Countries that practice irrigation have more prosperous agricultural sectors than those that solely depend on rainfall throughout the year.

The adoption of genetically modified seeds in developed countries though  still limited in Africa have contributed to high agricultural output in developed nations, because they are high yielding and resistant to weather shocks, on the flip side they are detrimental to indigenous seeds and come with their own disadvantages a discussion beyond the scope of this paper. 

Introduction of modern agricultural technologies like tractors, excavators, cultivators that have boosted agricultural output.

Environmental stability can be a factor, some countries are more stable than others, and some are faced with natural disasters like monsoons, floods, hurricanes and landslides making it unfavorable for agriculture.

Diversification through cattle , stock improvement, animal disease control, fruit production and preservation, fish farming, flower manufacturer, management of cattle and game ranches, quality control of foodstuffs and timber production have been emphasized by various governments in an effort to diversify production. The countries that have adopted these measures attained higher agricultural output.

Why other countries fail to capitalize on Agriculture.

Adverse weather conditions can affect economies. Due to the onset of climate change some countries experience abnormally long droughts resulting in crop failure and unfavorable conditions for farming. It decreases the rate of production and causes lose.

Human induced climate change, Soil erosion, water scarcity, pollution, loss of biodiversity, ocean acidification and other environmental problems threaten agricultural development.

Political instabilities in some countries make it impossible for agriculture to take place like the civil wars in Somalia, Congo, Sudan, and Iraq among others. Most countries have failed in this sector because of the civil wars.

Poor infrastructure in some countries has made agriculture impossible. In Africa and much of south Asia, Infrastructure is under developed and getting crops to markets or inputs like fertilizer to the farms can be a costly struggle. Bad roads cost the agriculturalists tremendously, Sometimes the cost of transportation is double the produce. 

High cost associated with agricultural modernization since agriculture is done on a small scale in mostly African countries. Farmers prefer the use of cheap human labor because they can’t afford machinery like tractors, cultivators, and modern storage facilities among others.

Lack of adequate training and education. The agricultural sector in Africa is the least productive in the world. There is need for innovation, science and technology to maximize training and the application of skills to the agricultural sector

Pests and diseases affect agricultural productivity in some countries like the coffee wilt disease.  Lack of capital to purchase pesticides, herbicides, and fertilizers.

In conclusion agriculture is the main source of livelihood for many people in the world. Governments should invest more in agriculture and improve farming methods this can improve standards of living and boost different economies.

Countries that are gifted with high average rainfall patterns should take advantage of that resource and produce for export. Like land, having a consistent high amount of rainfall is becoming more and more scarce given the changing climate, it is therefore now becoming an issue of accountability and global citizenship responsibility to ensure that countries that are well positioned with conducive resources such as fertile soils, high rainfall should use these resources to efficiently produce but also support those other parts of the world that don’t have. As we have earlier established, the amount of water in the universe does not change but only recirculates, it therefore makes perfect sense to hold countries receiving the highest share of rainfall to accountability and also expect them to realize their productivity responsibility.  Hence coming back to my assumption, if I were a banker and using rainfall as my currency it would be easy to develop a tax regime based on those facts.

            A product of Development Initiatives Africa.

Edited by Edgar Walter Byaruhanga Also Known as Abdul Lateef

Executive Director Development Initiatives Africa 
Safety Inspector Aljaber Signs, Galvanizing plant.United Arab Emirates.